Image legend: the colored polygon areas are the four areas they consider most likely that Are would get lost in. Points marked on map match points marked on the map descriping the run.
The dark blue and the orange areas covers the routes he might take if he by mistake ran from the Kealia trail into the green trail at (G), and then continued along this trail all the way to the spot where he could see that the trail did not go any further north. They say it is likely he would then try to cross over eastwards from (N)to get back on the Kealia trail hill, or otherwise get to the Kealia switchbacks area (B).
The cyan area they believe covers the most likely routes Are would take if he missed the initial turn into the Kealia trail at (I), shortly after the water refill spot (H). They believe he would discover this fairly quickly, but that he might choose to try to take a short-cut off-trail instead of running back.
The green area covers the routes he might have taken if he made the same mistake as the other runner, going east off the Kealia trail shortly before reaching the switchbacks area (D).
This information was brought to the attention of the official search party before the search started May 18.
Hi!
ReplyDeleteI (also orienteer) agree on the conclutions. I believe more in the blue and orange than the green area however. And I would add some cyan color to the north-west of the cyan polygon; if Are tried to take a short cut through the cyan area, he could have, by mistake, have entered the area with ridges around the letter "F" on the map, following the ridges in a slightly different direction into steeper slopes.
PS: I found a possibly better map at http://www.localhikes.com/HikeData.ASP?DispType=1&ActiveHike=0&GetHikesStateID=&ID=5336
Good luck on the search!
Hi.
ReplyDeleteThis is a comment to the orange polygon.
Being a fairly experienced orienteer, such as Are, these are some routes I think I might try, depending on how far I got before I tried to cross:
http://www.kvaase.com/are/GoogleEarth-bilde.jpg
http://www.kvaase.com/are/GoogleEarth_Placemark.kmz
Being on the wrong ridge, I find it likely that I would try to save height instead of climbing up on the other ridge where Kealia trail is. So from Y (in my picture) I might have tried to follow the valley as long as possible.
If I got as far as X before trying to cross, I would probably try to follow the ridge. But as I can see from the picture it is pretty steep there. So I would possibly try to find a way in the forest on the north-west side of the ridge, and then cross when I reached the bottom.
These discussions are madness. This area is very dangerous once you leave the major roads and trails. Doing any off trail hiking is very dangerous and unless you are very experienced with local conditions would likely lead to a fall off an unseen cliff. Nobody should have considered this then, should do it now, or contemplate it in the days to come.
ReplyDeleteThe people who know the most about this area are the ones who show the greatest caution in, and respect for, this Aina.
This is a tragic occurance. But let us not create another by using the misplaced methodologies that likely led the to first.
M.N.Muench, I disagree about anyone considering to go out and search off trail. These are the areas where Are most likely is, obviously he is not on the trails and or roads where alot of effort has already been searched. I know this area well as ive hunted here for years and have worked here for years as well. We will be there tomorrow to do what we can to bring Are home!!! I truly believe he is off trail in some of the areas mentioned here and hopefully we can bring him home safe tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteKeeping the faith...Oahu Pig Hunter's
I think both of these posts speak true. Pig hunters know the terrain, on and off trail, I'd trust them to guide me in this area, but even with years of experience hiking on Oahu, I would be VERY hesitant to traverse any distance off trail particularly in this area. The combination of crumbly and badly eroded drop-offs and excessive plant growth that hides the edges of cliff faces, cross country orienteering can be very dangerous. Even the edges of well used trails have been known to give way unexpectedly leading to a bad or severe fall. I am keeping faith that Are will be found alive and well, but I also know sending people out to search without severe precautionary advice is foolish, especially inexperienced civilians. As a city, a state, and a nation we are loath to loose anyone in such circumstances, especially a visitor with so much to live for. We are trying to find Are with no other desire than to help a fellow human being.
ReplyDelete